Scoring System
How we evaluate and rank wallet performance
How we evaluate and rank wallet performance
Our proprietary scoring system evaluates wallets across multiple dimensions to create a composite quality score from 0 to 100. The score reflects a wallet's likelihood of generating alpha on future trades.
We weight four factors based on their predictive value for future performance:
| Component | Weight | What It Measures |
|---|---|---|
| Performance | 40% | Actual trading results across multiple time horizons. We balance recent performance with long-term track records to identify sustainable edge. |
| Consistency | 25% | Stability of returns over time. Includes volatility analysis, drawdown characteristics, and win rate stability across market conditions. |
| Risk-Adjusted | 20% | Returns normalized by risk taken. Identifies wallets generating alpha efficiently rather than through excessive risk exposure. |
| Activity | 15% | Meaningful engagement patterns. Sufficient trade frequency, position diversity, and volume patterns consistent with historical behavior. |
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ INPUT METRICS │
│ ROI • Win Rate • Volatility • Activity • Holdings │
└─────────────────────────────┬───────────────────────────────┘
│
▼
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ NORMALIZE │
│ Scale each metric to 0-100 range │
└─────────────────────────────┬───────────────────────────────┘
│
▼
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ WEIGHT & COMBINE │
│ Apply factor weights, compute composite │
└─────────────────────────────┬───────────────────────────────┘
│
▼
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ COMPOSITE SCORE (0-100) │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘Wallets are classified into tiers based on their composite score:
| Tier | Score | Percentile | Tracking Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elite | 90-100 | Top 1% | Full position tracking, priority zone weighting |
| Excellent | 80-89 | Top 5% | Full position tracking |
| Good | 70-79 | Top 15% | Standard tracking |
| Average | 60-69 | Top 50% | Limited tracking |
| Below Average | Under 60 | Bottom 50% | Excluded from analysis |
Only wallets scoring 60+ contribute to zone generation. This filtering ensures our probability zones reflect genuinely skilled traders, not noise.
Scores are recalculated at different intervals depending on activity level:
| Trigger | Frequency | Scope |
|---|---|---|
| Significant transaction | Real-time | Affected metrics only |
| Daily recalculation | 00:00 UTC | Full score refresh |
| Deep analysis | Weekly (Sunday) | Historical pattern review |
Inactive wallets experience gradual score decay of approximately 2 points per week. A wallet must remain active to maintain its score.
Wallets require sufficient history before receiving a score:
| Requirement | Threshold |
|---|---|
| Minimum trades | 10 |
| Minimum age | 30 days |
| Minimum volume | $10,000 cumulative |
New wallets meeting activity thresholds but lacking history enter a provisional scoring period with wider confidence intervals.
Our scoring system has inherent constraints:
We continuously refine detection methods for these edge cases, but they represent fundamental limits of on-chain analysis.